Economic Effect Of Climate Change On Domestic Food Supply In Nigeria

• Zakaree Saheed S.

  Department of Economics, Faculty of Management Sciences Nigerian Defence Academy, Kaduna

  Author

• I.S Dasam

  Centre for Strategic Research and Studies (CSRS) National Defence College, Abuja

  Author

• E.O. Lawal

  Department of Economics, Faculty of Management Sciences Nigerian Defence Academy, Kaduna

  Author

Climate change has become a global concern due to its adverse effect, including rising temperatures, increased frequency of extreme precipitation and storms, accelerated ocean warming, and sea level rise, all of which significantly affect agricultural productivity. In response to these challenges, the Nigerian government has implemented various climate policies including the Climate Change Act, aimed at achieving zero-greenhouse gas emission. Despite these efforts, Nigeria continues to faces food insecurity threats. This study therefore examines the effect of climate change on domestic food supply in Nigeria, using the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) and Pair-Wise Granger causality testing procedures. The empirical findings reveal that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions exert a statistically significant negative effect on domestic food supply in Nigeria (β = -2.0354, p < 0.05). Precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity show with coefficient (β = -1.6352, p > 0.05), (β = 16.839, p > 0.05) and (β = 8.2595, p > 0.01) respectively, have statistically insignificant effects on domestic food supply. In contrast, population exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on domestic food supply (β = 3.8411, p < 0.05). Furthermore, the Pairwise Granger Causality tests, indicate that Carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) Granger-cause domestic food supply (F = 11.55, p < 0.05). However, the reverse relationship is not statistically significant (p < 0.05), indicating unidirectional causality from carbon dioxide emission to domestic food supply. A similar pattern is observed for temperature (TEMP), which Granger-causes domestic food supply (F = 9.65, p < 0.05), while domestic food supply does not Granger-cause temperature (p > 0.05). Relative humidity (RHDT) also Granger-causes domestic food supply at the 5% level (F = 4.20, p < 0.05). The study concludes that Carbon dioxide emissions significantly reduce domestic food supply, suggesting that environmental degradation poses a serious threat to agricultural productivity and food security in Nigeria. Consequently, the study therefore recommends that government and relevant stakeholders intensify efforts to reduce carbon emissions through promotion of renewable energy, afforestation programmes, and stricter enforcement of environmental regulations. Such measures would help to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change on agricultural productivity and enhance food security. 

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